Oscar 2006 Blog

Alright, folks, the time has come to once again predict who will win this year’s Oscars. Now you might be asking yourself what expertise does some jackass litblogger bring to the table? Well, I’ll tell you. Four Oscar pools and about $45 or so riding on the results. Further, with the exception of one year where I had to work, I’ve watched every single Academy Awards ceremony as long as I’ve been alive. I’d be slightly ashamed of this, but when you consider the fact that I’m not much of a sports fan, then I suppose the guilty pleasure factor evens out in the end.

I’ve seen four of the five Best Picture nominees, with Capote left to go before tomorrow. However, being keenly attuned to the din of film geeks and taking mental notes while listening, I decided to take a risk, finalizing my choices before I had seen all five.

Now keep in mind that these choices are who will win, not who should win. Predicting the Academy Award winners, as we all know, is a very strange science. And personally, with the exception of Good Night and Good Luck, I thought Syrianna and Broken Flowers were far better than any of the Best Picture nominees I’ve seen.

I’m going to offer intermittent predictions here. Here are my predictions for the acting categories.

BEST ACTRESS: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line.

Judi Dench is viewed as a “supporting actor” by the Academy and she’s already won an Oscar. Hollywood typically likes to reward their starlets here. Felicity Huffmann is not only too associated with television, but the Academy is ready for a gay cowboy movie, but not the story of a pre-op transexual. Keira Knightley is much too young. Charlize Theron was honored with Monster. This leaves Reese Witherspoon as the clear front-runner. She’s well-liked. She’s almost universally recognized as a great actor. And everyone knows that Walk the Line would have been nothing without her performance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Amy Adams, Junebug.

At least one of the two supporting actor awards are typically handed out to a quirky character actor or a slightly unusual choice. Think Anna Paquin for The Piano or Mercedes Reuhl in The Fisher King. Think Cuba Gooding, Jr. from Jerry Maguire or Kevin Kline in A Fish Called Wanda. So my guess is that Adams, despite her comparative obscurity, will win this. Catherine Keener needs a few more nominations down the line before the Academy honors her talent. Frances McDormand has already won for Fargo. I don’t see Michelle Williams’ role as the burdened wife fitting the dynamics that the supporting actor winner calls for. This leaves Adams, who is utterly buoyant in Junebug, and Rachel Weisz, who has the out-of-control character trait working in her favor. But my money’s on the bubbly Adams.

BEST ACTOR: Philip Seymour Hoffmann, Capote.

Terrence Howard and David Strathaim are simply too obscure for Academy members to get behind. Joaquin Phoenix is too young. Heath Ledger is certainly hot right now, but he doesn’t really give a performance (althuogh he’s a great mumbler). This leaves Hoffmann, who is not only at the apex of his career right now, but who has, from all reports, delivered the goods in Capote, representing that trusty Oscar-friendly genre: the Hollywood biopic.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain

They won’t give it to Clooney, simply because the Academy wants to keep him hungry for a few more years. And awarding an Oscar to Matt Dillon is, by just about any assessment, a sleazy predicament. The buzz is on Paul Giamatti because he was passed over last year for Sideways, but let’s be honest here. Giamatti’s work in Cinderella Man was more of a paycheck than a bravura performance. As for William Hurt, this is a token nomination to remind ol’ Billy that he’d better stop making Cronenberg films and appear in the next Spielberg joint if he wants his statuette. This leaves the only logical choice for Supporting Actor: Jake Gyllenhaal, who does actually deliver a performance in Brokeback and who also represents the “good cowboy” to Ledger’s “I should have…” lackadaisicalness.