More 1992 v. 2004 Primary Comparisons

Delaware: February 3, 2004 Primary

Tsongas 30.2%
Uncommitted: 29.6%
Clinton: 20.8%
Brown: 19.5%

Missouri: February 3, 2004 Primary

Clinton: 45.1%
Tsongas: 10.2%
Brown: 5.7%
Uncommitted: 39%

South Carolina: February 3, 2004 Primary

Clinton: 62.9%
Tsongas: 18.3%
Harkin: 6.6%
Brown: 6.0%

Arizona: February 3, 2004 Primary

Tsongas: 34.4%
Clinton: 29.2%
Brown: 27.5%
Harkin: 7.6%

New Mexico: February 3, 2004 Caucus

Clinton: 52.9%
Brown: 16.9%
Tsongas: 6.2%
Harkin: 1.8%

North Dakota: February 3, 2004 Caucus

Clinton: 46.0%
Tsongas: 10.3%
Brown: 7.5%
Harkin: 6.8%

Oklahoma: February 3, 2004 Primary

Clinton: 70.5%
Brown: 16.7%
Harkin: 3.4%

So, if Dean loses New Hampshire on Tuesday to Kerry (giving Kerry a double win and putting Dean behind in the game), the big question here is how, or if, Dean will carry these seven states.

And here are some more Iowa-New Hampshire results:

1992 Iowa: Harkin (64.3%), Uncommitted (11.0%), Tsongas (10.7%)
1992 New Hampshire: Tsongas (33%), Clinton (24.8%), Kerrey (11.1%)
1992 Front-Runner: Clinton

1988 Iowa: Simon (34.3%), Jackson (21.9%), Dukakis (20.8%), Babbitt (15.5%)
1988 New Hampshire: Dukakis (36.4%), Gephardt (20.3%), Simon (17.4%), Jackson (8.0%)
1988 Front-Runner: Dukakis

1984 Iowa: Mondale (48.9%), Hart (16.5%), McGovern (10.3%)
1984 New Hampshire: Hart (37.3%), Mondale (27.9%), Glenn (12.0%)
1984 Front-Runner: Mondale

1976 Iowa: Uncommitted (37.2%), Carter (27.6%), Bayh (13.2%)
1976 New Hampshire: Carter (28.4%), Udall (22.7%), Bayh (15.2%)
1976 Front-Runner: Carter

1972 Iowa: Muskie (35.5%), McGovern (22.6%), Humphrey (1.6%)
1972 New Hampshire: Muskie (46.4%), McGovern (37.1%), Yorty (6.1%)
1972 Front-Runner: McGovern

So outside of Gore in 2000, who won both New Hampshire and Iowa, and incumbents, not a single Democratic presidential front-runner has won both New Hampshire and Iowa in the last thirty years. The only primary candidate to win both was Ed Muksie.

The interesting thing is that with Dean trying to emerge from the Iowa rant incident, we’re seeing something of a Muskie-McGovern reversal. In 1972, Muskie’s campiagn collapsed when he reacted to newspaper articles attacking him. He cried, lost his lead and was perceived as weak. But according to the latest polls, Dean doesn’t look as if he’ll win New Hampshire. And with the press nipping on his tails, Dean’s now trying to atone for the Iowa rant, which may very well go down in political history. Ironically, the Internet, the very medium that propelled him, may end up killing him.

The campaign isn’t over yet. The Dean campaign will have to do some serious work in the seven states. But barring a major Kerry revelation, it’s looking a bit grim.

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  1. I can’t for the life of me figure out why the scream is such a big deal. So people will pick an entirely different candidate because one of them screamed and the other didn’t? What about (gasp!) their stands on the issues?

  2. It’s not grim yet. You’re forgetting, free media from being the “front runner” can only carry a candidate so far. Kerry is extremely short in the $ department. Unless he can really pick up some endorsements and free coverage, it’s going to be a tough battle for him ahead. Delegates pledged to Dean still beat those pledged to Kerry by more than a 2-to-1 margin.

    “he big question here is how, or if, Dean will carry these seven states”
    While none of the mini-Tuesday states looks good for Dean (perhaps NM only), He is still quite strong in the huge states to follow – including the “motherload” states of CA, NY, IL, and OH. Even here in Texas I think he can do well. Texas Dems are apathetic because we always lose. And we are used to being the rebels, so it’s not a safe bet that Dem primary voters will be much more Conservative or lean towards conservative Dems just because the state is conservative as a whole. Dean has built a fantastic grass roots following here, and I think he’s going to surprise a lot of people with his numbers in the South.

    “if Dean loses New Hampshire on Tuesday to Kerry”
    Dean will certain ally finish second in NH. I think there’s a very small chance he could pull out first, but the polls call that crazy.

    I think it will come down to Kerry trying to stay alive financially and if Dean can win some of those big states. I’m excited in any case, because I think either Kerry or Dean can beat Dubya in enough red states to win in November. Especially if they get someone like Clark as a running mate.

  3. Charles: Dean may have the cash, but the minute it becomes clear that Kerry’s the guy who will have the nomination, I don’t see him having any problem getting money. There are a lot of rich Bush-haters out there.

    And to clarify, I only said “a bit grim.” Muskie won New Hampshire and Iowa, but he couldn’t nab the nomination. Anything can happen. As Moorish Girl says, I don’t see why the scream is a big deal. If anything, it’s more goofy and endearing than anything else. The Zogby polls have shown Dean making a comeback. Personally, I think he’ll pull second in New Hampshire. But for the seven states, that’s anyone’s guess. But those are the ones which will ultimately count.

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