CNN reports the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows Kerry ahead with 35%, with Dean following at 23%. If Dean loses Tuesday, it won’t be the first time an eventual front-runner lost both Iowa and New Hampshire. Here are the results for the 1992 New Hampshire primary:
Tsongas: 55,663 (33%)
Clinton: 41,540 (24.8%)
Kerrey: 18,584 (11.1%)
Harkin: 17,063 (10.2%)
Brown: 13,659 (8.0%)
The precentages look familiar, don’t they?
But if Dean starts losing beyond this, then he’s in real trouble.
“But if Dean starts losing beyond this, then he’s in real trouble.”
I disagree. You can’t really compare Dean to Clinton at this point. George Sr. was not nearly as unpopular as Dubya in many areas at this stage. So you have the “Grey Davis effect” of people who may not normally bother to vote coming out to vote *against* Dubya indirectly. Also, Clinton had a somewhat easy run of the early Southern states because he was from here and popular in the South.
Dean still has a hell of a lot more money than Clinton did and any of his rivals do. He has stronger support in many of the large, non-Southern states than Clinton did.
I was only 13 at the time, but didn’t Tsongas drop out for health reasons? That leaves Clinton as the favorite over Kerrey by more than 2x.
Stick a fork in Dean, he’s done. His personality undid him…he’s perceived as passionate, but unstable. I fear we are stuck with Kerry.